Tropical activity forecasted to increase after unusually quiet season
While it’s been a relatively quiet Atlantic hurricane season thus far (knock on wood), top forecasters say activity could be ramping up in the near future.
According to AccuWeather experts, businesses and officials should remain prepared for an expected increase in tropical activity later this month.
Experts said that water temperatures at the surface and hundreds of feet in depth have “surged to record territory for this time of year in the Gulf, which increases the risk of rapid intensification.”
“The climatological peak of hurricane season is Sept. 10. This is the time of year when water temperatures in the Atlantic typically peak, and atmospheric conditions are most conducive for tropical development,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. “The frequency of storms in the Atlantic basin is highest on average on Sept. 10, according to historical data. This will likely be the first time in nearly a decade that the peak of hurricane season passes without a named storm. This rare occurrence has only happened three times in the last 30 years.”
AccuWeather pointed out that this year marks the first time in more than 30 years of back-to-back years without a named storm in the Atlantic basin on Labor Day, and that a surge of dry air has limited tropical development in the main development region of the Atlantic this week. Tropical Storm Barry in June has been the only storm to move through the region this year.
“It is unusual for the tropics to be this quiet, but not unexpected. AccuWeather predicted in March, when we issued our hurricane season forecast, that surges of dry air could lead to a midseason lull,” he said. “We have been forecasting the second half of the season to be more active than the first.”
AccuWeather experts stated that during hurricane season, between 40 and 60 tropical waves drift westward across the Atlantic. Experts stated that on average, one in five evolves into a tropical storm or hurricane, but the percentage can be much higher during active stretches near the peak of the season.
AccuWeather hurricane experts said less dry air, less Saharan dust and less disruptive wind shear is forecast in the Atlantic starting next week, and that sea surface temperatures and ocean heat content in the Gulf have surged to record territory for this time of year. Ocean heat content is a measurement of the depth of warm ocean waters.
“This exceptional warmth in the Gulf is troubling,” DaSilva said. “The ocean heat content in the Gulf has soared to a new record high that has not been reported before at any point in the season, not just the climatological peak.
“This exceptional warmth in the Gulf is troubling. The warm waters can act as fuel for developing tropical storms and strengthening hurricanes. Atmospheric conditions are forecast to be conducive for tropical development in late September. We are concerned about the risk of rapid intensification if a storm forms or moves into the very warm waters of the Gulf later this month. Conditions are primed for explosive, rapid intensification,” he added.
AccuWeather’s hurricane season predictions called for 13-18 named storms, with seven to 10 hurricanes, of which three to five would be Category 3 or greater. It also forecasted three to six direct impacts on the United States. Experts stated that Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, the Florida Gulf Coast, North Carolina, Atlantic Canada, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands face a higher-than-average risk of a direct impact this year.
For more information, visit www.accuweather.com/en/news/hurricane-center.
For information on hurricane preparedness, visit the e-edition of the Breeze Newspapers’ 2025 Lee County Hurricane Guide at https://www.captivasanibel.com/e-editions/2025/06/hurricane-guide-2025/.
To reach CJ HADDAD / cjhaddad@breezenewspapers.com, please email