Forecast: ‘Above average’ hurricane season predicted
With the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane season having made its mark as the third-costliest on record featuring multiple Category 5 hurricanes, top forecasters are predicting yet another active season.
Researchers at Colorado State University, one of the leading entities in hurricane season forecasts (now in its 42nd year), are predicting an “above average” season in their initial 2025 estimate.
The team points to an above-average subtropical eastern Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea surface temperatures as a primary factor for its forecast number this year.
The CSU Tropical Weather and Climate team is predicting 17 named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. Of those, researchers forecast nine to become hurricanes and four to reach major hurricane strength (Saffir/Simpson Category 3,4,5) with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or greater.
“Our analog seasons ranged from having slightly below-average Atlantic hurricane activity to being hyperactive,” wrote Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at CSU and lead author of the report. “While the average of our analog seasons was above normal, the large spread in observed activity in our analog years highlights the high levels of uncertainty that typically are associated with our early April outlook.”
CSU experts state when waters in the eastern subtropical Atlantic are much warmer than normal in the spring, it tends to force a weaker subtropical high and associated weaker winds blowing across the tropical Atlantic. These conditions will likely lead to a continuation of above-average water temperatures across most of the tropical Atlantic for the peak of the 2025 hurricane season, experts continued to state.
The report states that a warm Atlantic favors an above-average season, since a hurricane’s fuel source is warm ocean water and, additionally, a warm Atlantic leads to lower atmospheric pressure and a more unstable atmosphere with both conditions favoring hurricane formation.
Given the combined hurricane-favorable signals of a warm Atlantic and the unlikelihood of El Niño, the CSU forecast team is predicting an above-normal season. The authors do note that the initial April forecast historically has the lowest level of skill of CSU’s operational seasonal hurricane forecasts, given the considerable changes that can occur in the atmosphere-ocean between April and the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season from August to October.
The team predicts that 2025 hurricane activity will be about 125% of the average season from 1991-2020. By comparison, 2024’s hurricane activity was about 130% of the average season.
The 2024 season saw 18 total storms, 11 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes (Cat. 3 or higher).
The most significant hurricanes of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season were Hurricanes Helene and Milton, which combined to cause more than 250 fatalities and more than $120 billion dollars in damage in the southeastern United States.
The CSU team will issue updates to this forecast on June 11, July 9 and Aug. 6.
AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva warns it could be another year with “volatile” hurricanes.
AccuWeather experts state that one of the biggest factors for tropical development in 2025 is the abundance of warm water available to fuel storms. Experts state that water temperatures across the ocean, as well as in the Gulf and Caribbean, are already well above historical averages, and they will continue to run warm throughout most of the year.
“A rapid intensification of storms will likely be a major story yet again this year as sea-surface temperatures and ocean heat content (OHC) across most of the basin are forecast to be well above average,” DaSilva explained in a report. “The OHC measures not only the temperature of the water but also how deep the warm water extends. A deep pool of warm water provides much more fuel for hurricanes than a shallow layer of warmth near the ocean’s surface.”
The potential presence of La Niña and El Niño conditions are always major factors in how busy a season can be. Although these events take place in the Pacific, they have far-reaching effects that can boost or suppress tropical activity across the Atlantic, AccuWeather experts stated.
Neither is expected to be present during the first half of the season, but that could change by September, October, or November, according to Accuweather.
“A trend toward a La Niña could yield an active end to the season, while a trend toward El Niño could lead to an earlier end to the season,” DaSilva said.
AccuWeather is predicting between 13 and 18 named storms in 2025, including seven to 10 hurricanes, with three to five being major hurricanes, and three to six direct U.S. impacts. DaSilva added that there is a 20% chance of more than 18 named storms this year.
“AccuWeather is forecasting near to above the historical average number of named storms, hurricanes, major hurricanes, accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) and direct impacts to the United States,” DaSilva said.
DaSilva added that the upcoming season could get off to a fast start, with a chance for a named storm to develop before the season officially starts on June 1. He added that there could be a lull in activity following early-season storms, but could be capped by a busy end to the year. This would be similar to 2024, when 13 of the 18 named storms occurred between September and mid-November. The peak of the hurricane season typically falls around mid-September.
“Similar to last year, northern and eastern portions of the Gulf Coast and the Carolinas are at a higher-than-average risk of direct impacts this season,” DaSilva said. “Atlantic Canada and the northeastern Caribbean are also at an increased risk of direct impacts.”