Forecasters at the NOAA National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center are prognosticating “above-normal” hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin this year.

NOAA officials state they believe there is an 85% chance of an above-normal season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season and 5% chance of a below-normal season.

NOAA is forecasting between 17 to 25 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), with eight to 13 to become hurricanes and with four to seven major hurricanes (Category 3,4, or 5). Officials state they have a 70% confidence rate in the ranges.

Factors for this prediction are due to near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic, as well as development of La Nina conditions in the Pacific. Officials say reduced Atlantic trade winds and less wind shear are also major players, as they tend to favor tropical storm formation.

“With another active hurricane season approaching, NOAA’s commitment to keeping every American informed with life-saving information is unwavering,” NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad said in a statement. “AI-enabled language translations and a new depiction of inland wind threats in the forecast cone are just two examples of the proactive steps our agency is taking to meet our mission of saving lives and protecting property.”

As officials state that one of the strongest El Ninos ever observed is nearing its end, NOAA scientists predict a quick transition to La Nina conditions, which are conducive to Atlantic hurricane activity because La Nina tends to lessen wind shear in the tropics. To pair with those conditions, abundant oceanic heat content in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea creates more energy to fuel storm development.

“Severe weather and emergencies can happen at any moment, which is why individuals and communities need to be prepared today,” FEMA Deputy Administrator Erik A. Hooks said in a statement. “Already, we are seeing storms move across the country that can bring additional hazards like tornadoes, flooding and hail. Taking a proactive approach to our increasingly challenging climate landscape today can make a difference in how people can recover tomorrow.”

NOAA officials state they will upgrade their observing systems critical in understanding and forecasting hurricanes. The projects will provide more observations of the ocean and atmosphere in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, on the east coast of the United States and in the tropical Atlantic.

Researchers at Colorado State University, one of the leading entities in hurricane season forecasts — now in its 41st year — predicted an “extremely active” season in their initial 2024 estimate. The team points to record warm tropical and eastern subtropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures as a primary factor for the high number this year.

The CSU Tropical Weather and Climate team predicted 23 named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. Of those, researchers forecasted 11 to become hurricanes and five to reach major hurricane strength with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or greater.

The CSU team will again issue forecast updates on June 11, July 9 and Aug. 6.

Weather experts and forecasters with AccuWeather are predicting a potentially “explosive” season on the horizon, also pointing to warm water temperatures. They are also pointing to a swift change from El Nino to La Nina conditions.

Experts said La Nina results in wind shear, or “less disruptive winds,” over the majority of the Atlantic basin.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to the final day of November, and the AccuWeather team of long-range forecasters state it is never too early to prepare. Last year saw 19 named storms with four direct U.S. impacts, including the Category 3 Idalia.

Overall, AccuWeather meteorologists have forecasted 20-25 named storms across the Atlantic basin this season, including eight to 12 hurricanes, of which four to seven being major and four to six direct impacts. The Texas coast, Florida Panhandle, South Florida and the Carolinas are at a higher-than-average risk of direct impacts.